After a week of liquidations and panic-driven selling, the crypto market is showing early signs of stabilization. Bitcoin traded tightly around the $103K mark overnight, posting a modest 0.1% 24-hour move, while Ethereum hovered near $3,400. Solana led the downside among majors, dropping 8–10% to the $160 zone, followed by BNB and Dogecoin, each down about 6%.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index inched up from extreme fear (21) to 27, signaling that sentiment—while still fragile—is improving. Funding rates remain low across exchanges, reflecting reduced leverage after this week’s massive futures wipeout.
Market Drivers
ETF Outflows Extend Pressure
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw another wave of redemptions earlier this week, with BlackRock’s IBIT shedding $186.5M on November 3–4. Over $578M has exited across top ETFs in five days, highlighting institutional caution amid Fed rate-cut uncertainty. Historically, such outflow streaks often precede accumulation phases. Traders should keep watch for inflow reversals—a proven early signal of renewed institutional confidence.
Leverage Flush Resets the Field
Roughly $2B in liquidations hit crypto futures this week, 80% from long positions. The deleveraging briefly pushed BTC below $100K—marking its first dip under that level since June. While painful, it cleared excessive leverage from the system, setting up a cleaner base for price discovery. Notably, short-term holders now have 5.1M BTC back in profit, suggesting conviction is quietly returning.
Seasonal Tailwinds Ahead
Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s most bullish month, averaging +42.5% gains since 2013. Despite October’s brutal drawdown, seasonal strength combined with the Fed’s end to QT and softer macro outlook could support a late-month recovery—if sentiment steadies.
Technical Pulse
BTC is attempting to stabilize above the $100K psychological level, with key support at $103,400 and resistance at $109,200 and $115,600.
The RSI near 33 signals neutral-to-oversold conditions, while tightening Bollinger Bands hint at a breakout within 24–48 hours.
A confirmed close above $109,200 could target $115K–$118K. Conversely, a clean breakdown below $103K may reopen the $96K–$94K zone.
Watchlist
Macro: Fed and fiscal headlines through mid-November.
Metrics: ETF flow reversals and funding rate normalization.
Levels: BTC > $109.2K = momentum shift; < $103K = renewed downside.