Bitcoin briefly dipped under six figures as extreme fear swept the crypto market—but institutional flows hint the story isn’t as bearish as it looks.
Market Snapshot
Thursday delivered a sharp risk-off shift across the crypto landscape as Bitcoin wicked down to $98,000—its lowest level in six months—before reclaiming the $100,000 zone and consolidating near $100,400. The selloff followed a massive $867 million in ETF outflows on November 13, the second-largest single-day withdrawal on record.
Ethereum slipped to $3,193 (-6.39%), Solana cooled to $143, BNB held firm at $921, and Dogecoin slid to $0.16. The Fear & Greed Index cratered to 15, marking its deepest reading since March as liquidations cleared more than $500 million in leveraged positions. With macro uncertainty still in play, traders remain cautious.
Key Drivers
Institutional Flows Show Turbulence, Not Capitulation
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows flipped aggressively this week—from $524 million in inflows on November 11 to $278 million in outflows on November 12, followed by Thursday’s record $867 million drawdown. The volatility reflects profit-taking amid inflation uncertainty and political gridlock, not a structural reversal. When heavyweights like IBIT and FBTC move negative, it’s a signal that institutions are temporarily de-risking rather than abandoning the trade.
Long-Term Holders Are Selling—but Not Panicking
Legacy Bitcoin holders continue to distribute supply into strength, creating a headwind for sharp recoveries. Unlike prior cycles where distribution triggered violent selloffs, this wave has been controlled and methodical. Once this pocket of supply thins out, Bitcoin’s broader uptrend remains well-positioned for continuation.
Sentiment at Extreme Fear Levels
With Fear & Greed sinking to 15, retail sentiment is approaching classic capitulation territory. Historically, these levels often align with mid-cycle bottoms—even if short-term volatility remains elevated. When the crowd turns fearful, institutions typically start accumulating.
Technical Pulse
Bitcoin is hovering above key support at $100K after defending $98K. Immediate resistance sits at $104K, followed by $106.4K and $108K.
The RSI near 40 signals neutral-to-bearish momentum, while the 200-day EMA around $100.6K continues to provide structural support.
A strong reclaim above $104K could flip momentum bullish; losing $98K exposes a slide toward $94K–$96K.
Funding rates remain flat, suggesting leverage has reset.
What’s Next?
Macro Data: Keep an eye on inflation reports and any updates to the government shutdown, as both remain catalysts for market volatility.
ETF Flow Reversal: Sustained inflows above $200M could ignite a recovery rally.
Range Reaction: Bulls need a daily close above $104K to confirm buyers stepping in with conviction.